I have to admit, I wasn't sure what post number 30 should be about. I don't have anything earth shattering to share really. I have a super nerdy thing I have been working on about charging an EV under various conditions, but that just isn't ready yet. .... and then, after listening/watching several YouTube videos this week, I had an idea.... so here goes.
I really wanted to title this post "WTF have the major automakers been doing for the past 10 years?". I have come to the conclusion that the answer to that question is "absolutely nothing", which might not be fair to all of the major automakers around the world, but applies to most of them. Most of them seem to be happy to crank out the same old, boring ICE vehicles, which has seen nearly zero innovation in the last 20 years. So I thought I would write a bit about where many of these companies were 10-20 years ago as it pertains to EV, Hybrid, and battery technologies and what they each have done with it. Or for those not currently competing in the EV market, explain why.
But first, let's talk about the companies out there that have been and are continuing to transform the auto industry. These companies are driven almost completely by efficiency. By nature, they HAVE to, because they don't have the kind of funds available to them like the major automakers have. The exception might be Tesla, which had the priveledge of having Elon Musk's money to keep them going in the early years until they started to turn a profit.
Tesla - of course I was going to talk about Tesla first. Tesla started in 2003 and started selling their first EV, the Roadster sports car, in 2009. This was followed by the Model S sedan in 2012, the Model X SUV in 2015, the Model 3 sedan in 2017, and the Model Y crossover in 2020.
Early on Tesla realized in order for EVs to work for the masses, that they HAD to be aerodynamically efficient to get ranges with the existing battery technologies to be near 300 miles (a number Elon Musk has used as his threshold for minimum range for an acceptable EV). Tesla vehicles, until recently, all had the lowest coefficient of drag of any production automobiles, only to be recently out done by a few other EV models (Lucid Air for example). Many of the components that Tesla needed for their early EVs weren't even invented yet, and as such, they either took control of the development of these, or worked with suppliers directly to get the items they needed. Tesla has even transformed how the bodies and frames of cars are constructed. Their utilization of the GIGA Press technology to make most of a vehicle frame and body out of two, high pressure, high temperature extrusion castings utilizing super specialized presses that are massive, is something no one else is doing on this scale. Hundreds of different pieces of pressed metal are typically welded together to form the chassis of a car. This takes lots of time and energy that is saved with these massive castings.
Tesla is also transforming their approach to wiring in an auto. The classical approach is for each subsystem of the car having their own wiring for power and communications about the vehicle. Lights have their own power, sound system has its own power, sensors about the car each have their own power and communication cables, ABS have their own communications. This results in many redundant wires traveling from the front of the vehicle where the processing and controls are to each quadrant of the vehicle. Rather than having these stovepipe subsystems, Tesla is breaking the vehicle down in terms of areas or quadrants of the vehicle, removing wiring redundancy. This saves miles of copper wiring which is not only heavy, but is getting expensive. It also simplifies the production of the vehicles as well.
The downside to Tesla over their early years (not for them, but for the people) is that their business model has been from day 1, to FIRST build very expensive EVs to maximize thier potential profit per vehicle. The Roadster, Model S, and Model X all started near or over $100,000, which is out of the reach of most people. It wasn't until their Model 3 in 2018 and the Model Y in 2022 that they had an "affordable" EV. There is rumor of an even more affordable, smaller sedan.
Aptera - Aptera was a startup company about 16 years ago, and they failed. At the time, people (investors) were just not ready for the revolutionary concept vehicle they were designing and prototyping. They used Artificial Intelligence and high fidelity computer simulations to design a practical, but futuristic looking vehicle that has maximum aerodynamic efficiency. They managed to come up with a design that is aerodynamically 3 times more efficient than most Tesla models, and as such, can travel just as far as a Tesla on a battery that is 3 times smaller. They actually have 3 or 4 planned battery sizes and one of them is going to be capable of nearly 1,000 miles in a charge. This level of efficiency also makes the inclusion of solar panels into the design actually make sense, because they are actually able to produce enough energy to provide REAL driving range, as much as 30-40 miles of driving just by sitting in the sun each day. The same amount of energy collected by a Tesla would only produce about 10 miles of additional range per day. Unfortunately, many of the components they needed for their vehicle just didn't exist 16 years ago, and, much like Tesla, they had to be invented. There just wasn't enough capitol available to them to get through these early years, and they folded.
In 2019, Aptera was reborn (full summary of their story here: https://aptera.us/about/?gclid=Cj0KCQjw-fmZBhDtARIsAH6H8qgvTe18NpFmGW7Np1RlLQ3Kjja0DFvoMJqagwfum2QuM ). This time, 13 years later, the technology in many areas they needed matured and evolved. Batteries, in wheel hub motors are just two examples, and these things are now available to just buy off the shelf from suppliers rather than having to be custom manufactured or invented. They have produced an Alpha, Beta, and Gama versions of their prototype and are now working on firming up supply chains to build production models. There have preorders for nearly 40,000 vehicles already and might start selling production models in 2023 or 2024.
In addition to their design, they have been working with industry experts that have decades of experience in the Automotive Industry, to make their vehicle one of the simplest and easiest to produce. There vehicle is going to have fewer moving parts than just about any vehicle on the planet. Doors, suspension, motors, and HVAC basically. The body is basically two fiberglass shells that are mounted together with alignment tabs, making it super strong and light, which makes it super safe as well. They are also working with RedViking to procure AGVs (automated guided vehicles) that will carry their vehicles about their facility from station to station during production until complete (https://www.designdevelopmenttoday.com/industries/manufacturing/news/22249763/aptera-red-viking-reach-solar-ev-manufacturing-deal ). They have also decided that logistics of painting their bodies is just not practical or efficient. They would either need a dedicated facility on site or have to ship the bodies to a paint shop and then back... so they are not painting their vehicles and instead, they are applying a color wrap on the body of the vehicles right in their existing plant.
Current Aptera "Gamma"
Rivian - many leaders, engineers, and other employees left Tesla to start up Rivian. They currently produce two EVs, a pickup truck (R1T) and an SUV (R1S). Nothing earth shattering new here except they are producing the world's first, very rugged, very off-road capable EV trucks. As a company, they have issues as they are in that fragile state where they are trying to ramp up production while not quite turning a profit yet. But, they are producing a pretty great product according to owners and reviewers that will only get better, if the company survives these early years of "production hell". Their major product issues right now are mostly related to the SW and user interface, which they will figure out, and on the Pickup, the bed cover is having major mechanical issues but Rivian is promising to redesign it and replace it on every truck they have sold so far. The downside here is that their trucks are pretty expensive, but owners LOVE them. Some have said they are the best autos (not just trucks, but all autos) on the planet.
And many other EV companies that are new and making progress toward an all EV future. Polestar (a Volvo affiliated company) Lucid, Lordstowne, and Canoo just to name a few. Thy are all on the cutting edge of new EV technologies.
So lets talk about some of the major automakers and what they have been doing. I'll break these down into a few different categories
Automakers playing catch up. These include Ford, GM, VW Group, Hyundai, Kia and Nissan to round out this group. It is actually THIS group that "inspired" me to write this blog.
In general, I give them all props for realizing the EV revolutions is here and they are going to be left in the dust by the likes of Tesla and Rivian if they don't join the party. The stars of this group are Hyundai and Kia in my opinion, maybe VW closely behind. They have gone from a pure nobody in the EV market to having some very strong EV offerings in like 2-3 years...and they seem to be all IN, declaring bold focuses on their EV futures. VW, Ford, and GM all seem to be in the game as well at various levels. Let's talk about each:
Hyundai/Kia - These companies are essentially sibling companies that have been producing hybrids for more than a decade that honestly were not quite as efficient as what Toyota has been producing. The Kia Kona has been a solid EV in their lineup since 2018 (Europe) and 2019 (US). Their newest entries into the EV market (EV6, Ioniq 5) are being hailed as the Car of the year, with more coming.
Nissan - Nissan introduced the Leaf at the end of 2010 and got a mild upgrade in 2017, but for the most part, has remained unchanged mostly since its introduction. But sadly, that is it so far from them. They are working on getting a new SUV (Ariya) into the hands of consumer, but it isn't ready yet.
GM - GM has been plagued by some bad press due to fires being caused by their Bolt EV batteries (an overblown issue if you ask me). But they seem to be getting this issues under control and now are on the verge of selling an EV truck and three EV SUVs (2 Chevy, 1 Cadillac)
Ford - Ford has a gotten off to a pretty good start with the F-150 and the Mach-E (sorry, I cannot call it a "Mustang"...dumb move on their part) in the past 3 years or so. I love that they are basically splitting the company into an EV division and an ICE division. That is brilliant and something no other automaker of both ICE and EVs are doing
VW - Many might not know this, but VW has had several EV prototypes dating back as far as the 1970's!! Their small, aerodynamic cars of the era were excellent candidates to become EVs. Today, VW is working hard on their modern ID.# lineup and their ID.Buzz which might be the first production EV Minivan (built on the ID.4 platform). They sell their ID.3 mostly in Europe (we saw a good number of them in Ireland) and the ID.4 around the world. After Tesla's, I think I see more ID.4's than any other EV in our area.
But here is the problem.... My biggest beef with this group is with GM and Nissan, and to some extent, Toyota which I'll mention later. They all had chances to be pioneers in the EV world with their early EV products and plugin/hybrids (Toyota). GM had the EV1 in 1996. 26 years ago in 19-f-ing-96!!! They were one of the first in the modern era to produce an EV. The history goes that they basically let the gas and oil industry kill it and basically any momentum we might have had toward adoption of EVs (I think this is the short summary/documentary of what happened - https://youtu.be/l3OnYjP4FTk). OK, that was a tough battle, but then they followed that up with the Chevy Volt (2011) and now Chevy Bolt (2017), which honestly, have been great and revolutionary on their own, for like 10 years or more. And this is what I don't understand...they then made very little to zero progress since 2011 toward moving the EV technolgy (batteries, motors and design philosophies in general) into the future. Then, GM, sort of wakes up from their quarter century slumber like Rip Van Winkle earlier this year, with their first new entry into the EV world, the Hummer EV. Quite honestly, it is quite possibly the DUMBEST EV on the planet. Totally not aerodynamic, it weighs as much as about 5-6 Honda Civics (9,000 lbs), and as such, needs a battery that is more than double the size of every other EV battery on the planet. But, it is FAST, I'll give them that.
So, to summarize...these companies, after putting these first Gen EVs out there, have done nearly zero to move the EVs needle, and now they are playing catch up. How/why did they let that happen? They had the advantage of being first and having the financial backing of some of the largest corporations on the planet. Thier failures have been incredibly damaging to the image of EVs. I see it on social media all the time now. Many lies and half truths told about EVs by the anti-EV community are based on the capabilities of the EVs from these two automakers (GM and Nissan) whose EV products have not been revamped much in a decade. Battery life and charging rates of their vehicles are not spectacular compared to Rivian, Tesla, and others, which is why they are now playing catch-up.
GM is now working on a sweet EV Silverado, BlazEr, and Equinox and the Cadillac Lyric, which all look amazing, and Nissan has the new Ariya. But, what the F@#$ have they been doing for the past decade? Seriously.
Automakers Missing in (EV) Action (MIeA?): Basically, ALL Japanese automakers. This includes Toyota (Lexus), Honda (Accura), and Mazda. Each of these companies have some half-hearted attempts at EVs. This group is basically under the influence of the Japanese Auto Union (I can't find the official name), which I understand is chaired by the CEO of Toyota, who believes that EVs are a waste of time, or at least, that is what they are trying to convince the world. They want to produce Hybrids, because honestly, that is what they are good at. In my opinion, I believe they got caught with their pants down, and they know it, and they are beat with zero chance of catching up. So, their best chance to sell the most cars in the next decade is to deceive as many consumers as possible for as long as possible and hold on as long as possible.
And this is not to say that they aren't giving it the old "college try", but their attempts at EVs are just sad. They have produced some of the worst EVs available, had terrible sales numbers, then used that data to claim the world is not interested in EVs. Truth is that consumers are not interested in buying their CRAPPY have-assed attempts at EVs.
Toyota produced an EV in collaboration with Subaru - the BZ4X... it is terrible, no range, slow charging, which might be acceptable if it was economic, but it is not. The wheels are falling off, literally. They haven't been able to sell a single one for about 3 months because they didn't have a fix for the wheel issue. Do you think if they had wheels falling of of their Toyota Camry's or Tacoma's, it would take them 3 months to find a solution? I don't. They have zero motivation to sell EVs.
Mazda's first attempt at an EV is the MX-30 EV... it is terrible... no Mazda "zoom-zoom" here... overpriced, no range, just terrible according to all reviewers, who basically said it would be a decent EV model if it was about half the price that they are asking for it.
Honda - they are basically working with GM (using the Ultium platform that is being used in the GM SUV EVs) and slapping a Honda styled body and Emblem on them. Nothing original from Honda here, but at least they are thinking of selling EVs. Some of them look OK, we'll see. Not one sold yet.
And I didn't even mention that some of these companies are still hanging their hats on Hydrogen as the future fuel. Honda and Toyota have both tried pilots of this out in CA.
The Lost: Finally, I don't know what to say about the Stellantis brands. The mother company seems to be onboard with the EV revolution, but it seems to be a bit of a shit-show from there. Their European companies seems to be doing OK sort of, but here in America, they just seem lost. For those that don't know, Dodge, Ram, Chrysler, and Jeep fall under this umbrella.... oh, and Maserati... wanna guess how much they are asking for a Maserati EV?
The closest thing these brands have to an EV here in the US is the plugin-hybrid Jeep 4Xe (49 miles of EV only range) and the Hybrid Pacifica.... the rest is all talk about this, that, and the other thing, but nothing concrete. They seem to not really even understand the EV crowd or know their target audience. They recently teased a Dodge Charger (I think it was a charger) EV, but it produced engine reving sounds through speakers on the outside of the car to make it "sound" like a "Charger"... why? ( https://youtube.com/shorts/7FEmJKkxm5M?feature=share ) They might figure this all out, but for now, they are way behind the companies that are playing catch-up. I am not sure they can survive. We'll all still need vehicles to tow with, so maybe their RAM brand will survive?
What does the Future hold? No one really knows, but it is a safe bet that EVs are probably here to stay this time around. With the advent of affordable SOLAR power for home energy becoming more and more popular, driving an EV will become nearly free for most people. The added feature of some EVs being able to be a power backup source for your home in the event of a power outage is fascinating and very appealing to people that have fragile power supply systems or live in areas like the OBX or Florida that can be often impacted by storms that cause power outages for several days. Several of these companies I mentioned will dominate the EV future, companies that don't even exist or are barely starting up now will become prominent, and some current auto manufactures that have been around for 50-100 years might be in trouble. Tesla will continue to be a huge player for several moe decades or more. Their downfall could be their high vehicle prices, but somehow, I feel like they will figure out a way to get prices down, and have more affordable models for the masses.
The future is EV. Just talk to the young adults that are in their 20's. They get it and they are ready to go all in with EVs.
Related YouTube Videos: