Tesla Chronicles #41 - EV Affordability

Well, a text conversation my brother and I had over the weekend is the driving force behind this particular post. The two of us were talking about the Rivian vehicles, but particularly their truck, the R1T, and its price compared to the soon to be released Tesla CyberTruck. My initial reaction is that the base model of their truck at $73,000 is just way too expensive for most buyers, and my knee-jerk reaction is to think people would have to be crazy to spend that kind of money on a truck, particularly when the Tesla CT is coming "any day now". I was hesitant to spend $60k on the Model Y 2 years ago (now over $12k less not including tax incentives), but to be honest, any vehicle north of $70k is a big no for me, trucks included. But there are many people out there that spend big money on these "luxury" trucks. I am personally holding out for the CT. Sure, no one knows yet where the CyberTruck is going to come in at for price, but we are willing to bet it will be at least $10,000 less than a Rivian, which puts Rivian in a tough spot which may force them to consider dropping prices on a vehicle they already aren't making much if any profit on. But then, I realized I am probably not being fair. While there are plenty of pickup trucks out there that are $40,000 or less, those are mostly bare-bones work trucks...2 doors, RWD, no flash. As soon as you equip most trucks in a similar nature as the Rivian (4 doors, 4WD, Leather, high end sound, etc.), those other trucks quickly enter into the $70k range. So, the question, is it fair to compare the cheapest of ICE vehicles (not just trucks) to their EV counterparts when just about every EV model out there is "loaded" with features that, when the ICE vehicles are built out to have the same features, seems to put the prices on par with one another, or at least close.

So, I thought I would do a bit of a story this week on EV Affordability and Value and the ones I would seek out. I also include a list of the ones I would avoid like the plague. There are a ton of EVs out there in the market right now, and they seem to be easier and easier to get recently, likely due to interest rates driving down demand for all sorts of large purchases including vehicles of all sorts, not just EVs. So here goes. I am going to start with the more affordable EVs and work towards the more expensive items. I am not going to discuss anything over $100k (Lucid, Hummer EV, sorry).

This is a long one, so if you don't want to read everything below, here is my quick summary. The Chevy Bolt is the most affordable EV on the planet for the capabilities that it offers. It is a great commuter vehicle but not a road tripper. The ID.4 is a great deal as well and at about $10,000 more than the Chevy Bolt, it is a decent all around vehicle with the flaw of being reliant on the CCS network. As of right now, at this moment, it is my opinion that the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are the only affordable vehicles that can replace your ICE sedans or SUVs for commuting AND long road trips and will put you at a lower total ownership costs over 100,000 miles or more compared to most ICE vehicles (except for maybe a few of the hybrids). EV Trucks are really expensive right now, but a fully loaded ICE truck IS expensive too. If I was going to spend $70k or more on a pickup truck, and I wasn't planning on towing long distances frequently, it would be a no brainer to get one of the EV trucks that are out there.

You'll see in my list a number of vehicles ommitted that are promised "soon" but we have yet to even see any realistic models being tested. Chevy Blazer EV, Chevy Equinox EV, Chevy Silverado are all examples. We are also hearing word of a Ford Explorer EV (which would brobably be excellent but it is going to be expensive if I had to guess), and the Hyundai EV9, an SUV with the promises of an actual usable 3rd row that everyone is waiting for. Of these new future vehicles, I am hopeful that the Blazer and Equinox will be fairly affordable, everything else will be north of $70k or more if I was a betting man.

Marc's Recommendations (sedans and SUVs):

Chevy Bolt EV Base Price: $26,500. Well equipped: $31,900

Range: 259 miles

Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

Comparable ICE vehicles: see EUV below

Chevy Bolt EUV

     Base Price: $27,800. Well equipped: $33,700

     Range: 247 miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

Comparable ICE vehicles: Mazda 3 Hatchback ($25,700), Toyota C-HR ($24,280), Honda HRV ($24,100)

Marc Says:

The Bolt EV and EUV are just about the best bang for your buck when it comes to affordable EVs when compared to similar ICE (ICE = internal combustion engine) vehicles, particularly after you factor in the $7500 tax credit (if you are financially eligible). In fact, the tax credit makes the Bolt lineup cheaper than most of those others. For commuters and those that rarely drive over 200 miles in a single day, I'd seriously consider these vehicles. The 250 ish miles of range is more than plenty for most people's daily use and occasional road trip. The main issue with these vehicles is that in order to keep costs down, the on board DCFC charging capabilities are sub-par compared to many more expensive competitors. 50kw max charging a battery that is 65 kWh is going to take forever and a day on a road trip....so my recommendation would be to leave this one at home if planning more than a 200 mile drive, unless you like long rests on your road trips.

VW ID.4

     Base Price: $38,995

     Range: 275 miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Mazda CX-5, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV 4

     Marc Says:

     If it wasn't for the CCS charging network that this car relies on, I would hands down suggest this car could completely replace your ICE vehicle. It is so close, and in some areas of the country, it probably can. Unfortunately, or fortunately, the CCS network has let owners of CCS vehicles down and (the fortunate part) many automakers are moving to the Tesla charging standard (called NACS) to allow their vehicles to charge on the Tesla network. Once this happens, the ID.4 will be an excellent purchase to consider to completely replace your ICE vehicle. One black mark for this vehicle is that VW made some grand promises to owners that shortly after their purchase, that they would receive frequent SW updates, but has failed in rather glorious fashion with this. Dealerships are not staffed to handle the workload to get all sold vehicles updated quickly and an over the air (OTA) update is just not possible with their vehicle design. The OTA update approach by Tesla and Rivian is just so much better. If VW (and others like GM) can get better at OTA's, that would be significant.

Tesla Model 3

     Base Price: $40,240 Well equipped: $47,240 (LR-AWD)

     Range: 272 miles / 333 miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Honda Accord, Toyota Camry, Mazda 3 (many of these are upper $20's base price, low to mid $30's well equipped)

     Marc Says:

     After taking into consideration the tax credit, this is the first vehicle on my list that I would actually consider as a viable replacement for your gas vehicle. Once you equip any of the other ICE vehicles equal to the Model 3, they will be all be as expensive or more expensive than the Model 3. I would personally go for the LR AWD and possibly look at the Model Y (see below), but the Rear Wheel Drive version gets 272 miles of range, which is plenty with the current state of the Tesla charging network for most people. My daughter's Model 3 gets much closer to the EPA rated miles at highway speeds than my Model Y gets, which is important if you are considering the standard version. The AWD and added range of the LR models really makes them worth the extra cost in my mind, but that isn't for everyone. But at the end of the day, it is all about the charging charging experinece. The Model 3 is the first car on this list that has active battery temperature management (that I know of anyway). This is important for two reasons. It means the battery will be warmed up for a faster charging experience, cooled when needed for longevity, and when fast charging overheats the batteries. Second, the reliability and locations of the Tesla charging network has no comparison. And they are FAST 0-60 (4.0 seconds) which beats cars like Mustangs, Corvettes, Camaros, and the like...it isn't even close. Also, Tesla is just about to release the refreshed redesign in Europe (pictured below) which will hopefully be coming to the US soon as well. The revised version is even better, but might result in Tesla really discounting older models for short while, resulting in a great deal for some people. Avoid the temptation to purchase Full Self Driving or even Enhanced Autopilot. The basic Autopilot features that come with the vehicle standard are more than most people need. One fairly straight, well marked roads, the Autopilot will maintain speed and your lane indefinitely, which significantly reduces range on long trips. All Teslas charge like beasts, and the Model 3 and Y are capable of receiving 250 kw for a short while before it tapers off to a modest 150 kw by ~42% SOC and slowly reduces after that (similar to most EVs at higher states of charge).

Tesla Model Y

     Base Price: $47,740

     Range: 279 miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Mazda CX-5, Honda CR-V, Toyota RAV 4, maybe some of the slightly larger midsize SUVs like Highlander, Pilot, Explorer, and CX-9.

     Marc Says:

     For all the same reasons the Model 3 is a great choice and a viable replacement for your ICE vehicles, the Model Y is even better. In the first 2 quarters of 2023, it has overtaken the Toyota Corolla as the number one selling car in the WORLD. Not EV, car, and for many legitimate reasons....larger interior room for passengers, more cargo space, tons of range, great charging network, technology, OTA's, powerful, what's not to love? First, spend the extra $2700 and get the Long Range model / AWD for the extra 50 miles of range. After the tax credit, you are looking at a $40,000-$45,000 SUV, which is basically the going rate for many of the ICE competitors. In the snow with the right tires, the AWD is nearly unstoppable. The one thing most people overlook here is that the fuel efficiency of these other ICE SUVs really start to suffer once you start to get into this size of a vehicle, and the price premium to get them in a Hybrid isn't insignificant. The extra expense of the Model Y above the Model 3 is totally justified in my opinion. As compared to many of the midsized SUVs in this segment, the price after the tax incentives are very close, but once you factor in you'll be saving $1500 in "fuel" costs for every 10,000 miles of driving, the Model Y seems like an obvious choice. The Model Y is deceptively large inside. It looks like a smaller SUV (like a CX-5) on the exterior, and when parked next to our 2020 CX-5, it might even look a bit smaller. But with the Frunk space (large enough for a carry on sized bag), and sub trunk space (large enough for a carry on sized bag and then some, or an electric cooler), this vehicle can hold as much cargo as my 2017 Toyota Highlander could hold. It is slightly less sporty than the Model 3 because of its additional weight, but it has the same motors and batteries as the Model 3. If it is important to you, 0-60 times are under 5 seconds for the Dual Motor LR, and about 4.1 seconds if you add the Accel Boost, this thing really moves. I love my Model Y. My only complaint right now is the ride is VERY stiff. So much so that I have considered getting aftermarket modifications to soften it a bit. In 2023, Tesla addressed this issue with a modification to the suspension to make is a smoother, softer ride. I am holding off on modifying the suspension until I basically need to do some sort of repair of some sort or another to the suspension. With the same batteries and motors as the Model 3, it has about 10-20% less practical highway range than the Model 3 just because of aerodynamics and a larger frontal area.

3 Row SUVs: Tesla Model X and Rivian R1S

     Base Price: < $80,000

     Range: 300+ miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Highlander, Pilot, Explorer, and CX-9

     Marc Says:

     Tesla just announced a price reduction on the base Model X, and current Model X owners are pissed off. Now, the base Model X and the Rivian R1S are just shy of $80k but both are eligible for the $7500 tax credit if you don't add any additional features to the vehicle to drive the cost over $80,000, and you are eligible for the tax credit. Here is the thing, I think both of these vehicles are awesome for different reasons, but.... I just cannot justify this price tag. It's just too much. Sure, you could easily get into a Yukon Denali for well over $100,000, but that is just dumb when a Highlander maxed out is $50,000. Maybe if you are considering a Grand Highlander that is $60,000, then perhaps the additional $15,000 is justifiable. It is probably not a secret that I would favor the Model X, but Rivian does look really cool.

The CCS "Others"

     Base Price: generally over $40,000

     Range: Generally over 300 miles

     Some are eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Marc Says:

     I could write 10 more pages about these vehicles. Ford Mach E, Ioniq 5, Ioniq 6, EV6 and others. Many of these are great vehicles and very comparable to the Model 3 or Model Y, but they lack two things.... the Tesla charging network, and for the Kia\Hyundais, they are not eligible for the US Tax Credit, making them much more expensive than the Tesla's and ID.4. As for the charging network, sorry, but the CCS network is not there right now, and with many of these EVs in this group already over $40,000, they just aren't good deals right now. The Ford Mach E (I refuse to call it a "Mustang"... it just isn't) is the one that I really love the most out of this group, but from what I have read, the GT version is the way to go, so you are now in a price range that is well above the Model Y with not nearly the performance of the Performance Model Y, and less range. Then you have the high end models for the likes of BMW, Mercedes, Porsche and others. There are many amazing cars in this set, but the price is just not justified in my opinion.

Marc's Recommendations (Trucks):

Ford F-150 Lightening

     Base Price: $55,000 (XLT) Well equipped: $70,000 (Lariat)

     Range: 230 miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit  (if under $80k)

     Comparable ICE vehicles: F-150

    Marc Says:

     I Love, Love, Love this truck. A friend of mine has one and I cannot wait to go for a ride in it. Everyone on the internet, YouTube, etc. that owns one absolutely loves them. They are huge, roomy, have a comfortable ride, and a huge front trunk that make it a perfect road tripping machine. With onboard power, it also becomes an amazing vehicle for the occasional work-site, a weekend camping trip, or anything that needs power at a remote site. It is basically an enormous electric generator on wheels. Unfortunately, 230 miles is just not quite enough range for my personal liking, so I would jump on spending another $10,000 to get the extended battery upgrade to get up to 320 miles of range. This seems to be a huge sticker price, but if you look at a comparibly equipped F-150 Lariat, you are starting at nearly $60,000. Factoring in the cost of gas for a pickup truck, and it is almost a no brainer to go with this EV Pickup if you were already looking into the "Luxary" truck segment. Ford was one of the first OEM automakers to announce they are partnering with Tesla to incorporate their NACS plugs into their future vehicles and will hopefully have a NACS to CCS adapter for owners by early 2024. If you are thinking about an EV pickup, I can't see how this could be a bad choice. The vehicle to grid power system available for the F-150 is a game changer and sets it apart from EVERY other EV on this entire list. It is expensive right now, some $10,000 plus to setup and install in your home, but imaging having a huge battery sitting in your garage to power your home in the event of a power outage.

Rivian R1T

     Base Price: $73,000

     Range: 270 miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit (if under $80k)

     Comparable ICE vehicles: F-150

     Marc Says:

     I Love, Love, Love this truck. Wait, I just said that. But I do love this truck, for many of the same reasons I love the F-150. I would pay an extra $6000 to get the larger battery pack to push the price up to $79,000 which makes this basically the same price as the F-150 I would spec out. It is a smaller than the F-150 though and really is marketed for off-roaring and adventuring into the wilderness....things I probably would never need, yet, it just looks amazing. Owners of both the F-150 and R1T eport that this is a great everyday truck because of its smaller size, which I love. Still, is it fair to compare this truck at this price point to a larger vehicle like the F-150. Not so sure.

Tesla CyberTruck

     Base Price: unknown

     Range: unknown miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit (if under $80k)

     Comparable ICE vehicles: F-150

     Marc Says:

    I absolutely hated this truck when the first prototypes where shown....and then I bought a Tesla, and then... it just grew on me. Now, I can't wait to see one in person. No one knows all the details, so we'll just have to wait and see. Spottings in the wild next to the Rivian put it at roughly the same size as the Rivian. It has a much smaller front trunk than the Ford or the Rivian and it doesn' t seem to have any onboard power capabilities from early reports, so ... don't really like that. Tesla believes 250-300 miles is the lower end of range they want in their vehicles, and I am willing to bet their prices will be significantly lower than Ford and Rivian. I have my name on the waiting list to get one. There are about 1.5 Million people ahead of me on the waiting list, so it might be 2030 before they even get to me.

AVOID THESE (Cars and Sedans)!!!

Nissan Leaf

     Base Price: $28,150. Well equipped: $36,200

     Range: 140 miles. (212 if you buy the bigger battery)

     NOT Eligible for the $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Mazda 3 Hatchback ($25,700), Toyota C-HR ($24,280), Honda HRV ($24,100)

     Marc Says:

     Sadly, the Nissan Leaf, one of the first EVs to make it to the US market, just hasn't evolved and its competitors HAVE. It has one of the smallest batteries, which means shorter range, even if you drop an extra $8000 to get the plus version with a 60 kWh battery, it is only good for 212 miles. Furthermore, it is not eligible for the tax credit which just makes the Chevy products a better option here. I personally think they are ugly too, but no need to rub salt in their wounds. I'd look elsewhere if buying new. If you happened to find a used one for a really nice price, it might be worth a go, but even so, beware. Nissan has never believed in active battery temperature management, so some of their earlier Leaf models had terrible battery degradation.

Hyundai Kona Electric

     Base Price: $34,885.

     Range: 258 miles

     NOT Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Mazda 3 Hatchback ($25,700), Toyota C-HR ($24,280), Honda HRV ($24,100)

     Marc Says:

     On paper, this looks like a worthy competitor to the Chevy Bolts, but for the price, and with no tax credits, it just make sense to me. If it had a fast charging capability, then maybe, but from what I can tell, it has a similar maximum 50 kw charging rate.

Mini Cooper SE Hardtop

     Base Price: $31,895.

     Range: 114 miles

     Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Mazda 3 Hatchback ($25,700), Toyota C-HR ($24,280), Honda HRV ($24,100)

     Marc Says:

     Unless you are Mini Cooper enthusiast, the price is justifiable given the range.

Mazda MX-30

     Base Price: $35,485.

     Range: 100 miles

     NOT Eligible for the full $7500 tax credit

     Comparable ICE vehicles: Mazda 3 Hatchback ($25,700), Toyota C-HR ($24,280), Honda HRV ($24,100)

     Marc Says:

     If had more range, or charged fast, or had AWD, or was fun or spirited to drive... but from the reviews I have read, this is a terrible EV. It's basically a Mazda compliance car to show people they could build an EV if they wanted to, but they really didn't want to build a good one, so they did this junk pile instead. Way too expensive for the capabilities it delivers. This is a total letdown by Mazda as they build some great cars, but this is not one of them for sure.